06/14/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0650 UTC/14 JUNE 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A weak halo CME may impact Earth either on late UTC day 15-Jun or
else early UTC day 16-Jun.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 15-16 JUNE 2024"

Solar activity was lower over the past reporting week, June 6-12.

Ten new sunspot groups emerged, two on June 6, one on June 7, two on
June 9, and five on June 12.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 44 points from 183.4 to
139.4, and average daily solar flux from 184.8 to 179.2.

Average daily planetary A index went from 8 to 11.6, and middle
latitude numbers from 9.4 to 11.1.

The most active day geomagnetically was June 7, when the planetary A
index was 28. Alaska's College A index was 38. This was an
unexpected G2 geomagnetic storm that commenced at 1130 UTC.

Spaceweather.com[1] reports a polar cap absorption event on June 12-13.
Protons from the Sun are raining down on Earth, and it is causing
shortwave blackouts. You can monitor it here:

https://bit.ly/3Vpopko[2]

Predicted solar flux shows a peak at 205 on June 26-29 and again on
July 23-26.

The forecast shows flux at 170 on June 14, 175 on June 15-17, then
180 on June 18-20, then 185, 190 and 195 on June 21-23, 200 on June
24-25, 205 on June 26-29, then 200, 190, 180, 175, 170, 165, 160 and
175 on June 30 through July 7, then 170 on July 8-9, 165 on July
10-11, 155 on July 12-13, then 165 and 175 on July 14-15, 185 on
July 16-18, then 190, 195 and 200 on July 19-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 15 on June 14-16, then 8 on
June 17-18, then 5 on June 19-21, then 8 on Jun 22-23, then 5 on
June 24-29, 8 on June 30 and July 1, and 5 on July 2-6, then 8 on
July 7, 5 on July 8-15, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on July on July 16-20.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 13, 2024, from OK1HH:

"Despite the fact that the large sunspot group responsible for the
geomagnetic disturbances and the beautiful auroras of May 10-11 is
now on the far side of the Sun, its flares are showering the Earth's surroundings with a rain of protons. On the whole, however, there is
no doubt that after its reappearance at the eastern edge of the
solar disk, solar activity will again increase significantly, with
solar flux values exceeding 200 in late June and early July.

"For now, we will be content with the consequences of a slight
decrease in overall solar activity, although moderate solar flares
are no exception. Upswells in geomagnetic activity occur only
occasionally and most days are quiet to unsettled. Summer prevails
in the Earth's northern hemisphere, and sporadic-E layer events
contribute even more than solar events to the erratic shortwave
propagation conditions here.

"With the exception of the two largest active regions, however,
there is little going on at present on the far side of the Sun, and
so July already seems to be considerably quieter than May and June
were."

Radiation risks for Mars astronauts:

https://bit.ly/4b272M7[3]

Viewing sunspots from Mars:

https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87[4]

May solar images from various online sources:

https://bit.ly/45lmVvS[5]

https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb[6]

https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse[7]

https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/[8]

Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, June 22-23. Solar flux and sunspot
numbers should be rising at that time, and predicted planetary A
index is a moderate 8.

There will be an updated forecast in next week's bulletin.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for June 6 through 12 2024 were 149, 150, 143, 148,
146, 95, and 145, with a mean of 139.4. 10.7 cm flux was 190.9,
184.4, 190.4, 180.9, 177.8, 164.9, and 164.9, with a mean of 179.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 28, 14, 5, 11, 12, and 5, with
a mean of 11.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 20, 15, 6, 11, 13,
and 6, with a mean of 11.1.
ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3Vpopko
[3] https://bit.ly/4b272M7
[4] https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87
[5] https://bit.ly/45lmVvS
[6] https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb
[7] https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse
[8] https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/21/2024

Sunspot numbers rose this week, with the average changing from 139.4
to 149.6, but average daily solar flux only shifted from 179.2 to
178.

Only four sunspot groups emerged this week. There was one on June 15
and three on June 19.

Average daily planetary A index only changed from 11.6 to 10.3.

Predicted solar flux is 205 and 210 on June 21-22, then 200 June
23-27, then 190, 185, and 190, on June 28-30, then 190, 195, 190,
185 and 190 on July 1-5, 180 on July 6-7, 165 on July 8-9, 180 on
July 10, then 170 on July 11-13, 175 on July 14, 180 on July 15-17,
175 on July 18-19, 190 on July 20-21, then 180, 175, 180, 190, 180,
185 and 190 on July 22-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 10 on June 21-23, then 5
on June 24-29, 8 on Jun 30 to July 1, then 5 on July 2-14, then 12,
8, 8, and 5 on July 15-18, 8 on July 19-20, and 5 on July 21-26,
then 8 on July 27-28.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 20, 2024, from OK1HH.

F.K. Janda is going on vacation and will not have a report for us
over the next few weeks.

"Watching the Sun at its current 11-year peak of activity is
certainly not boring. On the contrary, we are experiencing quite
frequent surprises. For example, a week ago we observed an increased attenuation of radio waves in the polar region (PCA = POLAR CAP
ABSORPTION EVENT), caused by protons coming from the far side of the
Sun. Then, on 15 June (at 1157 UTC), a cloud of particles
unexpectedly hit the Earth, triggering a weak G1 class geomagnetic
storm.

"Over the next few days, AR3712 became larger, followed by AR3713
and AR3716. All three of these large sunspot groups are already
located in the western half of the solar disk, where particles from
a possible larger flare are more likely to hit Earth. In addition,
all three regions have an unstable magnetic field and are therefore
more likely to have M- or X-class flares.

"Of the largest sunspot groups observed this cycle, two will soon
reappear on the eastern limb of the solar disk (in May they were
designated AR3663 and AR3664). The first of these will begin to
emerge on the solar disk this weekend. The second, and then largest
group, will follow a few days after that. Fortunately, solar
activity will remain high, but unfortunately, changes in propagation
conditions will be harder to predict."

From the European Space Agency:

https://bit.ly/3VQt54j[1]

AR3712 and flares:

https://bit.ly/3xiIGAa[2]

Reverse magnetic field:

https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/[3]

This video about the Sun's corona is undated:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw[4]

Polar cap absorption event:

https://bit.ly/3REcY7b[5]

https://bit.ly/3REhuTb[6]

Latest videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4[7]

https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w[8]

This weekend is ARRL Field Day, and the forecast looks good, with
high solar flux at 200 and 190.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article on Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for June 13 through 19 2024 were 142, 117, 134, 152,
171, 150, and 181, with a mean of 149.6. 10.7 cm flux was 170.1,
169, 170.7, 167.3, 179.9, 192.7, and 196, with a mean of 178.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 19, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with
a mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 18, 9, 11, 11, and
9, with a mean of 10.1.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3VQt54j
[2] https://bit.ly/3xiIGAa
[3] https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/
[4] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw
[5] https://bit.ly/3REcY7b
[6] https://bit.ly/3REhuTb
[7] https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4
[8] https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/28/2024

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0538UTC/28 JUNE 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

"A glancing blow from a recent CME is expected to arrive late on UT
day 28-Jun. Additional to this, solar wind parameter Bz has been
oriented southward for approximately 15 hours. Combined this may
induce G1 geomagnetic conditions. A second CME is expected to arrive
late on UT day 29-Jun and may also cause G1 geomagnetic conditions.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 28-29 JUNE 2024."

Nine new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, June
20-26.

Two appeared on June 21, four on June 23, two more on June 25 and
one on June 26.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 149.6 to 141.6, but
average daily solar flux increased from 178 to 195.1.

Average planetary A index declined from 10.3 to 7.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 182 on June 28-30, then
180, 185, 180, 175, and 190 on July 1-5, 180 on July 6-7, then 165,
165 and 180 on July 8-10, 170 on July 11-13, then 180, 190 and 195
on July 14-16, then 200 on July 17-18, 195 on July 19-20, 190 on
July 21-28, then 195, 190, 185 and 190 on July 29 through August 1,
and 180 on August 2-3.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 15 on June 28-29, 5 on June 30
through July 13, then 10, 10 and 8 on July 14-16, 5 on July 17-19, 8
on July 20, then 5 on July 21-26, 8 on July 27-28, and 5 on July 29
to August 9.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 28 - July 04,
2024, from Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the
ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV):

"Quiet: June 30 to July 1, 3 and 4

"Unsettled: June 28 and 29, July 1 and 2

"Active: possible June 28 and 29, July 2

"Minor storm: 0

"Major storm: 0

"Severe storm: 0

"Next week, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions. Two unsettled
to active events are possible next week.

"The first one is possible about June 28 - 29, and the other one,
but unlikely, about July 2. Other days, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions."

George Hoffman, W7POE, wrote in an email:

"A question some of us have is, with the quite high SFI and SSN
numbers, why is the MUF around the Washington state region never
much above 21 MHz these days? For me 10 meters was totally dead
during Field Day. I haven't seen MUFs in the 30 MHz region for
several weeks now. Wonder if you could shed some light on this
puzzling issue. Thanks."

I replied that I suspect this is because of seasonal variation.

I used the W6ELprop program to estimate MUF over a specific path
(Dallas, Texas from Seattle) with an estimated smoothed sunspot
number of 133.

For the current date (June 27) it shows the MUF at about 22 MHz, day
and night.

But when I change the date back closer to the Spring Equinox (just
before March 28), the MUF is highest from 2030-2100 UTC at 34.7 MHz.

It also shows MUF above 28 MHz from 1530-0230 UTC.

George also shared a very useful link:

https://prop.kc2g.com/[1]

George replied:

"I also just ran W6ELprop and got 22 MHz for the Burien to Dallas
path and 17.6 MHz for the Burien to New York path. Anyway, I will
wait around for 10 meter openings.ÿ Thanks again."

William Paul, KD6JUI, of Dixon, California wrote in an email:

"I was operating from my kayak again on Field Day.ÿ 10 watts into a
homebrew loop. My ops were all SSB.

"Only heard one (1!) station on 10m, so all my operating was
confined to 15m. I had enough exchanges to keep me happy but there
was a lot of fading. Didn't hear any foreign stations coming in.

"Did get some fine photos of bees pollinating water flowers.

"Maybe if Field Day were held in December and with the same high
solar flux, 15 and 10 meters would've been a lot more active."

K7RA comment: "There is Winter Field Day in January."

NASA images:

https://bit.ly/3LmluV7[2]

Solar max and climate:

https://tinyurl.com/mu6wv455[3]

Active sunspot returns:

https://tinyurl.com/nhcpu46h[4]

https://tinyurl.com/fjea8zf8[5]

Big sunspot:

https://tinyurl.com/tuc8kyee[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for June 20 through 26 2024 were 138, 133, 139, 176,
141, 129, and 135, with a mean of 149.6. 10.7 cm flux was 203.3,
196.9, 195.7, 195.8, 198.7, 193.7, and 181.4, with a mean of 178.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 4, 10, 5, 9, and 9, with a
mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 8, 4, 6, 12, 7, 9, and 8,
with a mean of 10.1.
NNNN
/EX

ÿ


[1] https://prop.kc2g.com/
[2] https://bit.ly/3LmluV7
[3] https://tinyurl.com/mu6wv455
[4] https://tinyurl.com/nhcpu46h
[5] https://tinyurl.com/fjea8zf8
[6] https://tinyurl.com/tuc8kyee
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/05/2024

Solar activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 149.6 to 181.6. For some reason average daily solar flux decreased from 178 to 175.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on June 27, two on June 28, three on June 29, and one more on July 3.

Average daily planetary index rose from 10.3 to 15.6 while average middle latitude A index rose from 10.1 to 11.6.

On Friday, June 28, a CME caused a severe G4 class geomagnetic storm. Middle latitude A index was 32 and planetary A index was 59, much higher than Alaska's college A index (36).

Predicted solar flux is 175, 172 and 168 on July 5 to 7, 160 on July 8 and 9, 155 on July 10 and 11, 170 on July 12 and 13, 180 on July 14, 175 on July 15 to 17, 180 on July 18 to 21, 185 on July 22, 180 on July 23 to 29, 175 on July 30, 170 on July 31 through August 9 and 180 on August 10.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 12 and 10 on July 5 to 9, 5 on July 10 to 13, then 10, 10 and 8 on July 14 to 16, 5 on July 17 to 19, then 10 and 8 on July 20 and 21, and 5 on July 22 through August 9, and 10 on August 10 and 11.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for July 5 to 11, 2024

Quiet: July 5 to 7, 9 and 10

Unsettled: July 7 and 8, 11

Active: possible July 8, 11

Minor storm: 0

Major storm: 0

Severe storm: 0

"Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. More unsettled conditions with possible isolated active event are possible about July 7 and 8, and also at the end of the current forecast period, about Thursday, July 11." Tomas Bayer RWC Prague Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR Department of Geomagnetism Budkov Observatory

2023 NOAA updates:

https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update[1]

https://bit.ly/3XRnufb[2]

https://bit.ly/3VT7net[3]

Latest from Tamitha Skov, KX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/kGUb15uWzBw[4]

Blackout: https://bit.ly/45R9PqD[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . ÿ

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] .ÿ


More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

http://k9la.us/[11]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[12]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for June 27 through July 3 2024 were 146, 162, 205, 192, 192, 192, and 182, with a mean of 181.6. 10.7 cm flux was 182.5, 180.7, 186.4, 173.8, 170.6, 163.8, and 167.4, with a mean of 175. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 59, 14, 11, 6, 5, and 5, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 32, 11, 10, 5, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.6.


[1] https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update
[2] https://bit.ly/3XRnufb
[3] https://bit.ly/3VT7net
[4] https://youtu.be/kGUb15uWzBw
[5] https://bit.ly/45R9PqD
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/12/2024

New sunspot groups, nine in all, emerged on every day of this reporting week, July 4 to 10. One on July 4, another on July 5, two more on July 6, another each on July 7 and July 8, two more on July 9 and another on July 10.

On July 11, two more sunspot groups emerged, and the total sunspot area expanded by 13 per cent.

Despite the appearance of so many new sunspots, average daily sunspot number declined from 181.6 to 129, compared to the previous week. Average daily solar flux barely moved, changing from 175 to 176.6.

Predicted solar flux for the next month is 205 on July 12 and 13, 210 on July 14 and 15, 205 on July 16 to 18, 195 on July 19 and 20, 200 on July 21 to 25, 190 on July 26, 180 on July 27 to 29, 175 on July 30, and 170 on July 31 through August 2, then 165 on August 3 to 6, 160 on August 7 and 8, 175 on August 9, 180 on August 10 to 13, 195 on August 14 to 16, and 200 on August 17 to 21.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on July 12 to 16, 5 on July 17 to 20, then 10 and 8 on July 21 and 22, then 5 on July 23 to August 3, then 12, 10, and 5 on August 4 to 6, then 12, 8 and 5 on August 7 to 9, then 12, 10 and 8 on August 10 to 12, then 5 on August 13 to 15, and 10 and 8 on August 16 and 17 and 5 on August 18 and beyond.

Tamitha Skov wrote in an email on Wednesday:

We have a new big flare player rotating through the Earth-strike zone with some X-flare potential. Region 3738 has been growing rapidly over the past 24 hours, with some new spot clusters emerging right in the center of the original set. This kind of growth is highly magnetically unstable and is upping the noise on the day-side radio bands.

As of earlier today, we had already popped a couple of low-level M-class flares and now are approaching the R1-radio blackout level for a noise floor. That is quick growth! I did my best to estimate the conditions for the coming week in these 5-day Outlooks, but in the time it has taken to generate them, the region's growth has accelerated.

It looks like I will need to update the Solar Flare and Day side Radio Blackout Outlook in the above snapshot to something closer to a 60 per cent chance of M-Class flares and a 15 per cent chance of X-class flares. I will do this asap!

Other than Region 3738, we do have a pocket of fast solar wind coming that could give us a decent chance of aurora at high latitudes over the early part of the weekend. This is the only solar storm possibility for now, although we could see a new Earth-directed solar storm launch over the next few days! I will go over this possibility and the new fireworks from Region 3738 in the upcoming forecast I am shooting now.

Dr. Tamitha Skov has many videos of interest to our readers.ÿ You can find them here:

https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov[1]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 11, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

In early July, a sunspot group responsible for the May 10 superstorm reappeared on the southeastern limb. By the way, this superstorm caused thousands of satellites to drop in altitude, according to a research paper just accepted by the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets.

The aforementioned group was designated AR3664 at the time, in subsequent solar rotations AR3697, AR3723, is visible again, while in the same region are now AR3742, AR3743, and AR3745.

The most active is the rapidly growing AR3768, five times the size of the Earth. Most importantly, there is a coronal hole to the north of AR3768. Between mentioned CH and AR we can expect a source of enhanced solar wind that will very likely head towards the Earth and cause a geomagnetic disturbance on July 13 and 14. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions, randomly influenced by sporadic layer E in the northern hemisphere of the Earth during the summer, affected by numerous solar flares will develop, but less regularly.

Cycles 24 and 25 compared: https://bit.ly/3Y05gIM[2]

Sunspot number calculations and the peak of the cycle: https://yhoo.it/3WjX5Wg[3]ÿ

Five flares: https://bit.ly/3WlwuqT[4]

David Moore sent this about solar convection: ÿ

https://bit.ly/3WlQCKF[5]

Solar max: https://bit.ly/3xK36lR[6]

New look at Maunder minima: https://bit.ly/3WgVoJh[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14] ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

Sunspot numbers for July 4 through 10 2024 were 113, 111, 132, 119, 95, 143, and 190, with a mean of 129. 10.7 cm flux was 173, 165.6, 166, 171.3, 168.5, 178.2, and 213.6, with a mean of 176.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 3, 8, 10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 4, 7, 11, 8, and 8, with a mean of 8.3.


[1] https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov
[2] https://bit.ly/3Y05gIM
[3] https://yhoo.it/3WjX5Wg
[4] https://bit.ly/3WlwuqT
[5] https://bit.ly/3WlQCKF
[6] https://bit.ly/3xK36lR
[7] https://bit.ly/3WgVoJh
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/19/2024

Big increase in solar activity this week, with average daily sunspot number rising from 129 to 215.9, and solar flux from 176.6 to 226.5.

Fourteen new sunspot groups emerged. Two were on July 11, one on July 12, three on July 13, one on July 14, two more on July 15, three more on July 16 and two more on July 17.

On Thursday (after the reporting week) the daily sunspot number was 276, the highest value for cycle 25, according to Jon Jones, N0JK. A new sunspot group appeared that day.

Average planetary A index was quiet at 6, and the middle latitude number was 8.

More quiet geomagnetic indicators are forecast for the entire month of August, with planetary A index predicted at 5 on every day.

Predicted solar flux is 210 on July 19-21, 200 on July 22-25, 180 on July 26-27, 175 on July 28, 170 on July 29-31, 165 on August 1-2, then 170, 180 and 190 on August 3-5, 200 on August 6-11, and 230 on August 12-14, then 210 on August 15, 200 on August 16-18, then 195 and 185 on August 19-20, and 180 on August 21-23.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 16, 20 and 8 on July 19-22, and 5 on July 23 through the entire month of August and possibly the first week in September.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 18, 2024.

Increased solar flare activity continues. M-class eruptions are almost the order of the day and X-class eruptions are no exception. Their main source is currently the largest AR3751. While it is still in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk, it will cross the central meridian as early as July 19. After that the probability of an Earth impact by a possible CME will increase. In the southwest quadrant we observe five sunspot groups: AR 3742, AR3743, AR3745, AR3747 and AR3758, which were formed by the spill of the original extremely active May AR3664 (designated as AR3697, AR3723 in subsequent solar rotations).

Solar activity remains high and geomagnetic disturbances are less frequent and do not last long. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions, although mostly slightly above average level, vary irregularly. The sporadic layer E will continue for a few more weeks. We will continue to see fading during the day, in particular at lower shortwave frequencies (on the 7 MHz band and much more often and longer on 3.5 MHz) during moderate flares. Entire shortwave bursts will die down here and there during the largest flares, especially long-lasting X-class flares.ÿ F. K. Janda, OK1HH

Video from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/GLBIY3bbdQE[1]

Solar Flare: https://bit.ly/3Wp9wjA[2]

Martian aurora: https://bit.ly/4cJ2L21[3]

Blackouts: https://bit.ly/468L89c[4] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3LrTxex[5]

https://bit.ly/3Lx0ye6[6] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3Y7Lgnq[7]

Cycle 26: https://bit.ly/3YaG02h[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11].

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . ÿ

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] ÿ

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15] ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for July 11 through 17 2024 were 188, 162, 214, 217, 205, 250, and 275, with a mean of 215.9. 10.7 cm flux was 205, 209.7, 238.3, 233.9, 233.2, 241.9, and 223.8, with a mean of 226.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 4, 5, 7, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 7, 6, 9, 8, 12, and 7, with a mean of 8.

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/GLBIY3bbdQE
[2] https://bit.ly/3Wp9wjA
[3] https://bit.ly/4cJ2L21
[4] https://bit.ly/468L89c
[5] https://bit.ly/3LrTxex
[6] https://bit.ly/3Lx0ye6
[7] https://bit.ly/3Y7Lgnq
[8] https://bit.ly/3YaG02h
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/09/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0211UT/09 AUGUST 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Recent CME activity is expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 09-Aug and on 10-Aug. Further CME activity on 08-Aug is now expected to also increase geomagnetic activity on 11-Aug.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 09-12 AUGUST 2024 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

09 Aug: G0, chance of G1 late in UT day

10 Aug: G1-G2

11 Aug: G1-G2

12 Aug: G1 periods early in UT day, then G0

Solar activity jumped over the past reporting week (August 1-7) with average daily sunspot number rising from 208.9 to 222.3 and solar flux from 207.3 to 255.3.

Spaceweather.com reported that sunspot numbers have reached a 23-year high. On August 8 the daily sunspot number climbed to 332. We must be at the peak of cycle 25, but I hope we have more to go.

Geomagnetic numbers were fundamentally unchanged, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 14 to 15.7 and middle latitude index from 13.1 to 13.4.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged. One on August 1, two on August 2, three on August 4 and one on August 7.

Predicted solar flux shows 300 on August 9-10, then 260, 250, 270 and 280 on August 11-14, then 300, 205, 200 and 185 on August 15-18, 180 on August 19-22, 200 and 210 on August 23-24, 220 on August 25-26, 235 on August 27-28, 245 on August 29- 30, and 240 on August 31 through September 7, then 230, 225 and 210 on September 8-10, 205 on September 11-12, then 200 and 185 on September 13-14, and 180 on September 15-18. ÿ

Predicted planetary A index is 34, 52, 36 and 22 on August 9-12, 5 on August 13-21, then 10 and 8 on August 22-23, 5 on August 24 to September 11, 8 on September 12, and 5 on September 13-17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 8, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Of the five sunspot groups that moved from the southeast quadrant of the solar disk to the southwest during the past seven days, two of them (AR 3774 and AR 3777) are seeing moderate eruptions almost daily.

"There were three such eruptions on August 7 alone, while CMEs were observed in two of them. Their arrival on Earth is scheduled for August 10. It could cause a geomagnetic disturbance in the G2 (moderate) to G3 (strong) level. Which could be good news for the initial stage of development of decameter wave propagation conditions.

"But if the ejected clouds of particles of solar origin are faster and arrive already on the night of August 9-10, this is bad news for subsequent developments. We'll see.

"In a few days, the current largest active region AR 3780 will be located in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.

"Sunspot activity in July was the highest it has been in 23 years. ÿThe average monthly sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5. The last time this happened was in 2001. The last smoothed average can be calculated for this January: R12 = 131.1."

Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence Newsletter. https://bit.ly/4dfSj1Y[1]

The Worked All Europe CW DX Contest is this weekend. https://www.darc.de/der-club/referate/conteste/wae-dx-contest/en/[2]

Predicting solar max: https://bit.ly/3AafcFu[3]

Flare August 8-9: https://bit.ly/4dDAPg1[4]

Aurora: https://bit.ly/3WWq3f2[5]

From David Moore: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240730134746.htm[6]

Sunspot number hits 23 year high:

https://bit.ly/3LURJej[7]

https://bit.ly/46AGnFL[8]

https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/active-sun-many-sunspots-are-visible/[9]

https://bit.ly/3AdejvP[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] .ÿ

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for August 1 through 7, 2024 were 260, 232, 217, 194, 189, 222, and 242, with a mean of 222.3. 10.7 cm flux was 234.4, 247.1, 244.6, 240.8, 247.3, 270, and 303.2, with a mean of 255.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 9, 10, 46, 10, 6, and 7, with a mean of 15.7. Middle latitude A Index was 22, 9, 9, 28, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 13.4.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/4dfSj1Y
[2] https://www.darc.de/der-club/referate/conteste/wae-dx-contest/en/
[3] https://bit.ly/3AafcFu
[4] https://bit.ly/4dDAPg1
[5] https://bit.ly/3WWq3f2
[6] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240730134746.htm
[7] https://bit.ly/3LURJej
[8] https://bit.ly/46AGnFL
[9] https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/active-sun-many-sunspots-are-visible/
[10] https://bit.ly/3AdejvP
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/16/2024

With sunspot numbers and solar flux at times both above 300, recent daily space weather has been exciting for radio amateurs who watch the sun. We like higher activity because it correlates with a dense ionosphere, bringing with it better conditions on higher frequencies.

This extreme activity also comes with greater geomagnetic disturbance, which cause higher absorption of HF signals.ÿ

For example, on August 12 the solar flux was 272.4 and sunspot number was 245. Middle latitude A index was 51 and planetary A index was 122, very high values indicating the G4 geomagnetic storm.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared this week, two on August 8, four on August 11 and one on August 14.

On August 9 the daily sunspot number was 382, the highest in two decades.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 222.3 to 255, while average daily solar flux increased from 255.3 to 284.9.

Average daily planetary A index went from 15.7 to 28.6, and average daily middle latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia) from 13.4 to 17.9.

The solar flux outlook for the next few weeks looks promising, with values peaking at 300 in the first week of September.

Predicted values from forecasters Jones and Kiser at the US Air Force are 230, 225 and 220 on August 16-18, 215 on August 19-20, then 210, 205, 200 and 210 on August 21-24, 220 on August 25-26, 235 on August 27-28, 245 on August 29-30, then 240, 245 and 270 on August 31 through September 2, 300 on September 3-5, 290 on September 6-7, 280 on September 8, and 270 on September 9-11, then 260 on September 12-14, then 250, 240, 230, 210, 200 and 210 on September 15-20, and 220 on September 21-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 18, 30, 25 and 10 on August 16-20, then 5, 5 and 8 on August 21-23, then 5 on August 24 to September 17, then 18 and 12 on September 18-19, and 5 on September 10 until November.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 15, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

The current maximum of the "eleven-year" solar cycle is gradually surpassing all expectations and all predictions. Medium-mass flares (M-class) are observed almost daily and are often intense enough to silence radio signals at least in the longer part of short waves by increasing the attenuation in the lower ionosphere. Large solar flares (X-class) are no exception. They usually (shortly) knock out the entire shortwave range.

Many eruptions are accompanied by a particle cloud ejection (CME). If this happens near or west of the central meridian, it is very likely to "hit" the globe and cause a geomagnetic disturbance. In the case of multiple particle clouds flying toward the Earth at the same time, the first one may clear the way for the following ones, causing an extremely strong disturbance. Which is exactly what we saw on August 11-12.

The geomagnetic disturbance reached G4 level, while not only auroras were observed in mid-latitudes during the disturbance, but also a phenomenon known as STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), until relatively recently confused with auroras. We observe it as a colored tilted ribbon. Thanks to the simultaneous peak of the Perseids meteor shower, we were able to witness a truly extraordinary spectacle.

The height of the highest critical frequencies of the f0F2 layer, and thus the MUF, was on average at an eleven-year low of solar activity on August 12. However, with the difference that as the radio wave passed through the ionosphere, a large attenuation was produced, largely due to scattering on inhomogeneities. The improvement in propagation conditions was slow and gradual. A slightly better 13 August was followed by a deterioration on 14 August. Situation was only slightly above average on 15 August. But with that said, we already knew of other CMEs heading towards Earth.

We don't expect a drop in solar activity anytime soon, if only because we know of other active regions on the far side of the Sun thanks to helioseismological observations. Soon we will be able to observe them on the eastern edge of the solar disk.

W3LPL wrote in an email: ÿ

"Ain't this solar maximum great?

Solar Cycle 25 is now much, much stronger than anyone anticipated, and it s slowly growing stronger through at least this weekend.

Today's Wednesday estimated international sunspot number is 281. ÿIt's increasingly likely that we'll have widespread coast-to-coast and worldwide 6 meter F2 propagation during about half of the days between late October and at least early February.

Widespread F2 openings are likely to bring 6 meter CW and SSB to life like we haven't experienced in more than 20 years.

The first sign of enhanced 6 meter F2 will be increasingly frequent TEP from Europe and North America to South America and the South Atlantic islands. TEP may begin very sporadically by late August and become increasingly frequent later in September and especially during October.

Coast-to-coast F2 propagation and propagation crossing the Atlantic to Europe and Africa may begin sporadically during September and October and become frequent and long lasting by early November.

Effective 6 meter antennas can be very small.

3 element Yagis are small, lightweight and very effective. 20 foot antenna height is adequate but sloping terrain or higher antennas perform much better. Heights higher that 50 feet are not necessary and in many cases perform poorly.

Are you ready for this once in a lifetime experience?"

I want to remind everyone of this useful web site: https://prop.kc2g.com/[1]

Record breaking number of sunspots:

https://www.space.com/sunspots-solar-cycle-25[2]

https://tinyurl.com/k9cnbtt8[3] ÿ

Sky & Telescope: https://tinyurl.com/musyznst[4] ÿ

Massive flare: https://bit.ly/4fPW1Bp[5]

Newsweek on aurora: https://tinyurl.com/3wnckehs[6]

Cycle 26: https://tinyurl.com/3jdhyekc[7] ÿ

Forbes claims quarter century max:

https://tinyurl.com/yhm398ph[8]

Red Deer, Alberta: https://tinyurl.com/y5a7sv3f[9]

Great solar image: https://tinyurl.com/yc84azws[10] ÿ

New report from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/yd1gEZoYpsM[11] ÿ

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]ÿ.

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at: ÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at: http://k9la.us/[17] .

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[18] ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

Sunspot numbers for August 8 through 14 2024 were 337, 382, 234, 194, 245, 199, and 194, with a mean of 255. 10.7 cm flux was 336, 305.5, 291.1, 281.5, 272.4, 259.9, and 248.2, with a mean of 284.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 7, 28, 122, 17, and 12, with a mean of 28.6. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 9, 8, 23, 51, 12, and 11, with a mean of 17.9.


[1] https://prop.kc2g.com/
[2] https://www.space.com/sunspots-solar-cycle-25
[3] https://tinyurl.com/k9cnbtt8
[4] https://tinyurl.com/musyznst
[5] https://bit.ly/4fPW1Bp
[6] https://tinyurl.com/3wnckehs
[7] https://tinyurl.com/3jdhyekc
[8] https://tinyurl.com/yhm398ph
[9] https://tinyurl.com/y5a7sv3f
[10] https://tinyurl.com/yc84azws
[11] https://youtu.be/yd1gEZoYpsM
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/23/2024

ÿTen new sunspot groups appeared over this reporting week (August 15-21), but both solar flux and sunspot numbers were lower, due to the extraordinary numbers in the previous week.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 255 to 180.3, while average daily solar flux went from 284.9 to 232.7.

Geomagnetic numbers were quieter. Average daily planetary A index declined from 28.6 to 11.9, and average daily middle latitude numbers sank from 17.8 to 12.

On August 17 the planetary A index was 31, caused by a CME around 1400 UTC. A strong G3 geomagnetic storm was the result.

One new sunspot group appeared on August 15, and two more emerged on every day from August 16 to 19, and one more on August 21.

Predicted solar flux is 230 and 235 on August 23-24, then 240 on August 25-26, 230 on August 27, 235 on August 28-29, 205, 210 and 215 on August 30 through September 1, 220 on September 2-3, 225 on September 4-6, 220 on September 7, 225 on September 9, 230 on September 10-12, and 225 on September 13-16, 215 and 210 on September 17-18, 200 on September 19-20, then 205, 210, 205 and 200 on September 21-24, and 205 on September 25-26.

The planetary A index prediction shows 8 on August 23, and 5 on August 24 to September 17, 18 and 12 on September 18-19, then 5 on September 20 through the first week in October.

I get mail asking why ten meters isn't open during all of the recent high solar activity. The reason is the season. We have to be much closer to the autumnal equinox to see ten meters open regularly.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 22, 2024 from OK1HH.

"After the solar flare X1.1 on 14 August, accompanied by a CME, we expected a geomagnetic storm. A more accurate prediction was provided by the NASA model - the disturbance in agreement with it started on 17 August around 1400 UT. The geomagnetic storm was strong (G3), probably triggered by the arrival of more than one CME.

We observe two to three sunspot groups on the solar disk that can produce moderate flares (they have a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field). There are usually 10 - 12 groups in total. Coronal holes are few and relatively small, which reduces the likelihood of an increase in solar wind speed. Semi-regularly, days with higher MUF values (until Aug 17, Aug 19 and Aug 21) alternated with decreases (Aug 14, Aug 18, Aug 20...), which could only be predicted to a very limited extent and only for shorter intervals based on measured interplanetary magnetic field variations. But these are mostly impossible to predict."

Solar activity has remained at a 20-year high for most of this summer, and so far there is no indication of a possible decline.

20 year record: https://bit.ly/3ACRphS[1] .

Kepler. Thanks to David Moore for this:

https://cnn.it/3Xff40v[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] ÿ

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this. Understanding Solar Indices from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] ÿ

Sunspot numbers for August 15 through 21 2024 were 164, 169, 170, 170, 213, 200, and 176, with a mean of 180.3. 10.7 cm flux was 227.4, 224.9, 229.5, 231, 239.1, 238.2, and 239, with a mean of 232.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 31, 13, 10, 7, and 8, with a mean of 11.9. Middle latitude A Index was 6, 11, 24, 15, 11, 9, and 8, with a mean of 12.


[1] https://bit.ly/3ACRphS
[2] https://cnn.it/3Xff40v
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/30/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0200 UTC/29 AUGUST 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

The solar wind environment remains elevated due to ongoing CME effects.ÿ G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Aug.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 29 AUGUST 2024 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 29 Aug: G0-G1."

This week seven new sunspot groups emerged, with two on August 22, one on August 25, two on August 26 and two more on August 28.

Average daily sunspot number declined slightly from 180.3 to 177.1, and average daily solar flux from 232.7 to 229.

Planetary and middle latitude A index averages were about the same, at 12.3 and 12.

Predicted solar flux shows 210, 220 and 215 on August 30 to September 1, 220 on September 2-3, 225 and 230 on September 4-5, 275 on September 6-8, 280, 285, 280 and 280 on September 9-12, then 275, 270, 265, 260, 255, 250, and 245 on September 13-19, then 240 on September 20-21, then 235, 230, 235, 240 and 245 on September 22-26, 250 on September 27-28, then 255, 260, 265 and 270 on September 29 through October 2, and 275 on October 3-5.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 30 to September 1, 5 on September 2-16, then 8, 8 and 12 on September 17-19, then 5 on September 20 to mid-October.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 29, 2024 from OK1HH.

"About 10 sunspot groups can still be observed in the solar disk, two to four of which have magnetic field configurations that are indicative of middle magnitude flares.

After several solar flares in recent days, the arrival of CMEs to Earth was widely expected. This was also true for the X1.1/2b class flare in AR 3784 (N12E05) with a maximum on August 14 at 0640 UT, accompanied by bursts of solar radio noise types II/IV. However, nothing special continued to happen either. So much so that some authors canceled the predictions of a geomagnetic disturbance on 27 August. Which was a mistake - the disturbance began on the afternoon of August 27, while reaching G2 level.

For the state of the Earth's ionosphere, this happened at the right time. In the positive phase of the disturbance, the highest usable frequencies of the F2 layer increased, while propagation from Europe to the west coast of the USA through the ionospheric waveguides was observed up to around the boundary between HF and VHF.

As expected, on 28 August the evolution in the negative phase of the disturbance continued with a significant decrease in f0F2, including an increase in attenuation.ÿ Surprisingly rapid improvement already occurred on the following day, August 29, while can be attributed not only to the high solar radiation in the ongoing solar cycle maximum, but also to the change in the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field."

Check Tamitha Skov's latest videos: https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is atÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7]

Also, check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for August 22 through 28 2024 were 175, 180, 172, 178, 202, 170, and 163, with a mean of 177.1. 10.7 cm flux was 230.6, 241.7, 232.6, 232.6, 232, 221.3, and 211.9, with a mean of 229. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 7, 10, 7, 5, 11, and 26, with a mean of 12.3. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 8, 12, 8, 4, 11, and 30, with a mean of 12.


[1] https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/06/2024

Eight new sunspot groups emerged over the past week.

Two appeared on August 30, three more on August 31, another two on
September 2 and one more on September 4.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 177.1 to 155.3, while
average daily solar flux barely changed from 229 to 230.3.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported the average daily sunspot number for
August was 200, the highest monthly average in the past two decades.

Reader David Moore sent in this link about the same thing:

https://bit.ly/4cQHwdD[2]

Predicted solar flux is 235 on September 6, 225 on September 7-8,
230 on September 9-13, then 250, 255 and 245 on September 14-16,
then 240, 235, 240, and 245 on September 17-20, 240 on September
21-22, 245 on September 23-24, then 240, 235, 230 and 225 on
September 25-28, then 230, 240, 245, and 250 on September 29 through
October 2, then 240 on October 3-4, and 245 on October 5-6, 240
again on October 7-10, then 250 and 255 on October 11-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on September 6,and 5 on September
7, 10 on September 8-9, 8 on September 10-11, 5 on September 12-16,
8 on September 17-18, 5 on September 19-25, and 25 on September
26-27, then 15 and 8 on September 28-29, and 5 on September 30
through October 4, 10 on October 5, and 5 on October 6-13.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 5, 2024 from OK1HH:

"September 6th was the sixth day of a continuous influx of
solar-origin protons into the Earth's atmosphere. The likely source
is on the far side of the Sun, probably in AR3792, possibly AR3796.
This influx briefly intensified on 3 September at noon UTC.

"Overall solar activity remains high. The solar flux is again close
to the values measured on August 6-13, about 27 days ago, or during
the last solar revolution. Summer in the Earth's northern hemisphere
is slowly coming to an end and shortwave propagation conditions
should improve on average. This is happening, but at a slower and
more erratic pace. The reason for this is the irregular changes in
the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and the parameters of the
solar wind. Sometimes the changes are even opposite to what we would
expect - for example, on 4 September between 1000 to 1500 UTC there
was a rather significant and unexpected increase in geomagnetic
activity, without any major changes in MUF and overall propagation
conditions.

"We are now observing only a single small coronal hole on the Sun
now. It is located near the central meridian and there is no active
region nearby. Respectively, all three larger ARs, capable of
producing eruptions of moderate magnitude, are south of the solar
equator. Accordingly, we find no change in the short-term forecasts
from the current state. More optimistic are the medium-term
forecasts, which take into account seasonal changes."

The "Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence" Newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20240905.pdf[3]

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/S07qt59PcWI[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [10].

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11] "Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions toÿ ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for August 29 through September 4 2024 were 124,
143, 180, 156, 200, 133, and 151, with a mean of 155.3. 10.7 cm flux
was 204, 214.2, 232.6, 231.6, 225.5, 242.1, and 261.8, with a mean
of 230.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 23, 26, 16, 8, 7,
and 13, with a mean of 14. Middle latitude A Index was 5, 16, 19,
16, 7, 10, and 16, with a mean of 12.7.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/4cQHwdD
[3] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20240905.pdf
[4] https://youtu.be/S07qt59PcWI
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: ARRL de WD1CKS to QST on Fri Sep 06 2024 14:35:38

I just recently started reading these updates and find them interesting. However, there are three sections that could be better presented to make the data easier to read, namely, the Predicted Solar Flux, Planetary A Index and Sunspot Numbers.

Throwing the numbers together in a paragraph can make it harder--especially for newbies, like me--to assimilate the information. A tabular arrangement would be more logical for this type of data. For example, here's the Predicted Solar Flux as a table:

Predicted Solar flux
-------------------------------------------------
September 06 - 235 September 26 - 235
September 07-08 - 225 September 27 - 230
September 09-13 - 230 September 28 - 225
September 14 - 250 September 29 - 230
September 15 - 255 September 30 - 240
September 16 - 245 October 01 - 245
September 17 - 240 October 02 - 250
September 18 - 235 October 03-04 - 240
September 19 - 240 October 05-06 - 245
September 20 - 245 October 07-10 - 240
September 21-22 - 240 October 11 - 250
September 23-24 - 245 October 12 - 255
September 25 - 240

A similar approach could be taken with the other two sections mentioned earlier.

Hope this has been helpful. Later daze!

---
þ Synchronet þ End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to ARRL de WD1CKS on Sun Sep 08 2024 09:58 pm

I just recently started reading these updates and find them interesting. However, there are three sections that could be better presented to make the data easier to read, namely, the Predicted Solar Flux, Planetary A Index and Sunspot Numbers.

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.
--
digital man (rob)

Synchronet/BBS Terminology Definition #31:
FF = Form Feed (ASCII 12, Ctrl-L)
Norco, CA WX: 96.4øF, 30.0% humidity, 3 mph W wind, 0.00 inches rain/24hrs
---
þ Synchronet þ Vertrauen þ Home of Synchronet þ [vert/cvs/bbs].synchro.net

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Digital Man to Mortar on Mon Sep 09 2024 11:25:57

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.

Don't know who Deuce is, but I get yer meaning. Which means I need to go to the source. I did see an email addr. to send comments, etc. I'll try that.

Thanks.

---
þ Synchronet þ End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to Digital Man on Mon Sep 09 2024 08:50 pm

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Digital Man to Mortar on Mon Sep 09 2024 11:25:57

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.

Don't know who Deuce is, but I get yer meaning. Which means I need to go to the source. I did see an email addr. to send comments, etc. I'll try that.

The messages you're referring to are imoprted from the AARL by WLARB (Whisky Lovers Amateur Radio BBS), which was created by Deuce (then K6BSD, now W8BSD).
--
digital man (rob)

Breaking Bad quote #10:
Get a big old raging hard-on at the idea of catching this piece of shit! - Hank Norco, CA WX: 93.6øF, 23.0% humidity, 8 mph W wind, 0.00 inches rain/24hrs
---
þ Synchronet þ Vertrauen þ Home of Synchronet þ [vert/cvs/bbs].synchro.net

09/13/2024

With sunspot numbers up and solar flux decreasing, we saw ten new
sunspot groups this week; two on September 6, three on September 7,
two on September 8, one on September 9, and two on September 11.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 155.3 to 178.4, while
average daily solar flux declined from 230.3 to 223.7.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 14 to 7.9 and middle latitude numbers from 12.7
to 11.7.

The solar flux forecast calls for 10.7 cm numbers at 210 on
September 13-14, 205 on September 15-20, then 225 and 220 on
September 21-22, then 225 on September 23-24, then 230, 235, 230 and
225 on September 25-28, and 240 on September 29-30, then 240, 245
and 230 on October 1-3, 220 on October 4-5, 225 on October 6-7, 220
on October 8-9, 225 on October 10-11, 220 and 215 on October 12-13,
210 on October 14-15, then back up to 240 at the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 35 and 25 on September 13-14, then 15
on September 15-16, then 12, 15, 12 and 12 on September 17-20, 5 on
September 21-25, then 25, 25, 15 and 10 on September 26-29, then 5
on September 30 through October 4, 10 on October 5-6, then 30, 22
and 8 on October 7-9, 5 on October 10-13, 8 on October 14-15, and 5
on October 16-22, then 25 on October 23-24.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 11, 2024 from OK1HH:

"The solar wind speed, as measured in geostationary orbit, increased
in two jumps on 12 September - first shortly after midnight UTC from
360 km/s to 430 km/s, then to 520 km/s after 0818 UTC. Meanwhile,
the polarity of the longitudinal (north-south) component of the IMF
(Bz) was negative. The consequence was a significant deterioration
of shortwave propagation conditions.

"The development continued on 12 September as the X1.3 solar flare
was detected at 0943 UTC. The source was a new AR turning into view
off the southeast limb (former AR 3792, whose high activity during
the parade on the Sun's far side was well known thanks to
helioseismological observations).

"However, the strong (G3) Geomagnetic Storm followed, while
threshold was reached at 14:43 UTC. Values of critical frequencies
f0F2 in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere of the earth
were 2 MHz lower compared to the previous days. Now it can be
expected geomagnetic disturbance around September 14 (possible
arrival of particles from the September 11 CME). We may wait until
September 18 for quiet days."

WP3GW wrote:

"After a 4 month hiatus, just began again on FT8. I have noted that
the SFI has been more than 200, and have worked European stations at
about 2200 UTC, three hours after propagation normally closes to the
Caribbean.

"And have seen signals late night and in mornings before the Sun
comes up in 10 meters, making it a twenty plus hours open band. Have
made 7 new countries on FT8 in almost 3 weeks.

"Hope these conditions keep good for this contest season.

"Cheers, Angel Santana WP3GW."

Jeff, N8II wrote:

"There have been somewhat limited openings to Europe on 10 meters
for about 2 weeks. On Monday September 2 I worked several Southern
EU and several UK stations, some with good signals. Today, the 8th
was exceptionally good. Not only was the 10 meter band open to all
but possibly NE Europe, but stations in the Middle East were S9 to
S9+20 dB. On SSB I worked A42K, Oman, and 4K6FO, Azerbaijan. Also,
UA9CTT, Asiatic Russia was S9+20 dB and UN4L, Kazakhstan was peaking S8 all of them working the All Asia Contest. I called CQ with the
majority of my callers from the UK all with good signals, many over
S9. The only somewhat weak Brit was a mobile running 5W who was
peaking S5. OH6TS, Finland answered my CQ, and I heard SM5CAK,
Sweden over S9. I was also called by Hungary and Romania. It was
like the middle of October on a good day, very surprising 2 weeks
before the equinox. All of my QSOs were between 1400-1520Z. I also
worked JE6RFM on 15M SSB during that time and heard a JA5 about S7.
There was an Indonesian also on 15M working the Asian contest who
was S9+.

"The Summer has been frustrating with very limited activity except
in contests above 20M. 20M was open through most of the night to
Europe throughout the June-August period.

"The sporadic-E was poor this year, fewer openings and mostly single
hop. Every day 10M was open to Central and South America. Around the
middle of August, we started getting daily openings to the West
Coast. Since then, most days were open to AF and OC. Hawaii has been
loud on several occasions including the NAQP Phone test 2nd weekend
of August and was also briefly loud during the Hawaii QP last
weekend of August.

"Today September 12 there was a good F2 opening to EU; I worked two
R4s (next to Asia), several SP, DL, I, HB9, F.ÿ YL3BF called and was
about S4-6. The UK was not part of the opening. One of the Germans
was running 15W to a 5M long indoor wire and was peaking S9!"

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/RHphr4iloHs[1]

Impressive sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3zjgI8o[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [9]"Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 5 through 11 2024 were 167, 188, 179,
176, 213, 147, and 179, with a mean of 178.4. 10.7 cm flux was
240.7, 248.9, 221.7, 227.6, 214.8, 205.2, and 207, with a mean of
223.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 7, 9, 9, 7, and 8,
with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A Index was 8, 8, 9, 19, 9, 7,
and 18, with a mean of 11.1.
ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/RHphr4iloHs
[2] https://bit.ly/3zjgI8o
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to Digital Man on Mon Sep 09 2024 08:50 pm

Don't know who Deuce is, ...

That made me giggle... LOL

---
þ Synchronet þ Telegraph BBS - Fayette Co, OH USA

Don't know who Deuce is, ...

He's one of the maintainers of the synchronet software, as well as
syncterm, some of the js doors, and other software.

If you need to contact him, it is usually best to try in the synchronet IRC channel.


* SLMR 2.1a * Catastrophe n. an award for the cat with the nicest buns
---
þ Synchronet þ CAPCITY2 * capcity2.synchro.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/Rlogin/HTTP

09/20/2024

Solar activity was quiet over the past week, but geomagnetic numbers
were way, way up.

Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 178.4 to 120, and average
daily solar flux from 223.7 to 175.7.

Average daily planetary A index rocketed from 7.9 to 35.7, and
middle latitude numbers from 11.1 to 23.4.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week; one each on
September 13 and 14, two on September 16, and two each on September
17 and 18.

Predicted solar flux is 160 and 155 on September 20-21, 150 on
September 22-26, then a huge leap to 230 and 225 on September 27-28,
240 on September 29 through October 2, 230 on October 3, 220 on
October 4-5, then 215, 205 and 207 on October 6-8, 201, 186 and 172
on October 9-11, 173 and 175 on October 12-13, 170 on October 14-16,
165 on October 17-18, 170 on October 19, 225 on October 20-21, then
230, 225, 230 and 225 on October 22-25, then 240 on October 26-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on September 20-22, 5 on
September 23-26, then 25, 15 and 10 on September 27-29, then 5 on
September 30 through October 4, 10 on October 5-6, and 5 on October
7-9, 10 on October 10, 20 on October 11-13, 15 on October 14, 10 on
October 15-16, then 5 on October 17-22, 25 on October 23-24, and 15
and 10 on October 25-26.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 19, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity has decreased slightly in recent days, but
before that AR3825 produced energetic flares, including two of the
largest: X1.3 on September 12th and a very strong X4.5 on September
14th. The arrival of the CMEs and the onset of the disturbance,
expected on the afternoon of UT Sept 16th, was delayed and
registered as an influx of protons in the solar wind at 22:44 UT
Sept 16th. After that, a geomagnetic disturbance started to develop,
which significantly affected the shortwave propagation conditions,
especially on 17 September.

"A more pronounced upsurge in solar flux can be expected once the
large active regions known to be present through helioseismology
start to reappear at the eastern limb of the solar disk. This should
happen around 26 September. However, a repeat of the August 28-29
disturbance is expected in the same period. Therefore, an
improvement in propagation conditions can be expected before
September 26, or better yet, shortly during the onset of the
disturbance-after which a deterioration will occur."

New STCE newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[1]

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/o0HWm0W-YRw[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 12 through 18 2024 were 160, 127, 136,
68, 103, 140, and 106, with a mean of 120. 10.7 cm flux was 201.2,
185.8, 172.4, 172.8, 169.2, 165.4, and 163.3, with a mean of 175.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 67, 37, 21, 19, 23, 71, and 12,
with a mean of 35.7. Middle latitude A Index was 36, 22, 22, 16, 19,
39, and 10, with a mean of 23.4.

ÿ


[1] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[2] https://youtu.be/o0HWm0W-YRw
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/27/2024

Seven sunspot groups emerged this week. The first was on September
19, three on September 20, one each on September 22 and 23, and the
last on September 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 120 to 137.2, and
average daily solar flux shifted from 175.7 to 164.3.

Geomagnetic numbers were much quieter. Average daily planetary A
index changed from 35.7 to 14.3, and middle latitude A index from
23.4 to 10.7.

Predicted solar flux is 180 September 27 to October 1, 190 on
October 2-6, 185 on October 7-9, 180 on October 10, 175 on October
11-16, 170 on October 17-18, 165 on October 19, 160 on October
20-23, 165 on October 24-26, then 170 and 175 on October 27-28, 180
on October 29-30, and 190 on October 31 through November 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 27-28, 8 on September
29-30, 5 on October 1-4, 10 on October 5-6, 5 on October 7-9, then
10, 20 and 19 on October 10-12, and 5 on October 13-21, 8 on October
22-23, 5 on October 24-31, and 8 on November 1-2.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 26, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Solar flare activity is generally lower than it was in the first
half of September, when M-class solar flares were common and X-class
flares also occurred. The last significant M-class flare, including
a CME, was observed on September 22. However, the Earth's magnetic
field activity increased on September 25-26, incidentally in good
agreement with the forecast.

"Propagation conditions, especially in the shorter half of the
shortwave range, have understandably improved, but not as much as we
might have expected in the run-up to the equinox. This was
influenced by a decrease in solar activity (compared to August
levels) - and of course an increase in geomagnetic activity.

"Unlike in times relatively recently past, any of us can monitor not
only total solar activity, but also changes in solar wind
parameters. Both its speed and the concentration of free electrons
and protons ejected by flares. Changes in the ionosphere follow
quickly, but not always in the same way. It is also always the
result of previous developments."

Latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/B9jWbAVEpZw[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8] "Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for September 19 through 25 2024 were 109, 113, 117,
114, 224, 123, and 160, with a mean of 137.1. 10.7 cm flux was
161.2, 153.8, 158, 162.8, 167.4, 172.4, and 174.2, with a mean of
164.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 7, 6, 5, 13, 17, and
32, with a mean of 14.3. Middle latitude A Index was 15, 6, 6, 3, 9,
12, and 24, with a mean of 10.7.


[1] https://youtu.be/B9jWbAVEpZw
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/04/2024

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0042UT/04 OCTOBER 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

Two coronal mass ejections first observed on 01-Oct and 03-Oct are
expected to impact Earth over 04-05 Oct. Lack of analyzable corona
graph imagery makes arrival time predictions uncertain.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 04-06 OCTOBER 2024.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:
04 Oct:ÿ G3, chance of G4
05 Oct:ÿ G3, chance of G4
06 Oct:ÿ G1-G2

New sunspot groups emerged on every day over the past week. Two new
regions appeared on September 26, another on September 27, two more
on September 28, another on September 29, another on September 30,
three more on October 1 and another on October 2, for a total of
eleven.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 137.1 to 164.7, and average
daily solar flux from 164.3 to 213.1. Average daily planetary A
index shifted from 14.3 to 9.6.

Predicted solar flux is 310 on October 4-6, 300 on October 7, 290 on
October 8-10, 175 on October 11-16, 170 on October 17-21, then 175,
180, 185, 190 and 195 on October 22-26, then 200 on October 27-29,
205 on October 30 through November 4, then 200 and 185 on November
5-6 and 175 on November 7-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 54, 94, 72, 22 and 15 on October 4-8,
5 on October 9-10, then 20 and 19 on October 11-12, then 5 on
October 13-21, then 28 and 10 on October 22-23, 5 on October 24-26,
and 10 on October 27, then 5 on October 28-31, 10 on November 1-2, 5
on November 3-5, then 10, 20, and 19 on November 6-8, and 5 on
November 9 and the foreseeable future.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 3, 2024 from OK1HH:

"After AR3811 disappeared from our field of view behind the
southwestern limb of the solar disk on September 12, it was
continuously tracked by helioseismological methods until September
29, when it reappeared in the southeast, numbered AR3842. Its size
and activity on the far side of the Sun suggested that we could look
forward to a lot of activity in October.

"And so, it did. When solar flare X7.1/2b was observed on October 1
with a maximum at 2220 UT, the second largest in the current 11-year
cycle, I planned to start with this announcement. But when flare
X9.05, newly the largest in X-ray intensity in the same AR3842, was
observed on October 3 at 1218 UT, that was no longer the case.

"The source region of AR3842 was heading straight towards us. So,
the plasma cloud was probably heading directly for our ionosphere.
Unlike the aforementioned X7.1/2b (which thus moved to the third
largest), it is very likely that the CME of October 3 will hit
Earth. We therefore expect a disrupted end of the week.

"This weekend we can expect low MUF and high LUF on shortwave and
QSOs over aurora on VHF. Early next week will see a gradual return
to average and then above average radio wave propagation conditions
in the ionosphere."

From "The New Zealand Herald," Aurora in Auckland:

https://bit.ly/3NcNOde[1]

Radio Blackout hits U.S.:

https://bit.ly/3zNlkno[2]

https://www.space.com/sun-monster-solar-flare-x7-video[3]

Here is the latest update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/QDf6eyTCbe4[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [11]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for September 26 through October 2 2024 were 189,
122, 148, 154, 150, 196, and 194, with a mean of 164.7. 10.7 cm flux
was 181.1, 186, 194.5, 197.2, 214.2, 244.6, and 274.4, with a mean
of 213.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 7, 7, 16, 11, 6,
and 7, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 5, 5, 17,
5, 9, and 6, with a mean of 8.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3NcNOde
[2] https://bit.ly/3zNlkno
[3] https://www.space.com/sun-monster-solar-flare-x7-video
[4] https://youtu.be/QDf6eyTCbe4
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/14/2024

Thanks to Carl, K9LA for contributing to this week's bulletin.

"SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2220 UTC/10 OCTOBER 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A halo CME first observed on 09-Oct arrived at Earth at 10/1515UT, resulting in G4 geomagnetic conditions on 10-Oct. G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-Oct, with a chance of G5. G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Oct, with a chance of G3 due to ongoing CME effects.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 11-13 OCTOBER 2024

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

11 Oct: G4, chance of G5

12 Oct: G2, chance of G3

13 Oct: G0-G1"

Only four new sunspot groups emerged this week. The first was on October 4, another on October 6 and two more on October 7.

Average daily sunspot number moved from 160 (Sep 26-Oct 2 period) to 182 (Oct 3-9 period), and average daily solar flux from 199 to 270.

Predicted solar flux is 215 on October 11-13, 210 on October 14-15, 200 and 205 on October 16-17, and 170 on October 18-21, then 175, 180, 185, 190, 195, 215, 230, 240, 250 and 255 on October 22-31, then 230 and 215 on November 1-2, then 205 on November 3-4, 200 and 185 on November 5-6, 175 on November 7-12, and 170 on November 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index reveals a huge disturbance at 122, 42, 12 and 12 on October 11-14, 5 on October 15-21, then 15, 10, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on October 22-27, 5 on October 28 til November 2, 12 and 8 on November 3-4, 5 on November 5-7, 8 on November 8, and 5 on November 9-17.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for October 10, 2024 from OK1HH.

"During the first ten days of October, the number of sunspot groups dropped from eleven to five, but the eruptive activity of the two largest sunspot groups did not decrease. Not only are moderate flares (M-classes, of which 34 were observed) frequent, but large events (X-classes) are also relatively common (five effects were observed, including one proton flare on 9 October). Several CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were also observed.

"After the two most active regions in particular moved to the western half of the solar disk, geomagnetic activity has increased significantly since 6 October. The most significant impacts on the state of the ionosphere were on 8 October. This will be followed by a very slow return to normal, lasting several days. A calm development can be expected after mid-October."

Reader Allison King sent this: https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP[1]

David Moore sent this. A new era of solar observation: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. ÿWhen reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] ÿ

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] ÿ.

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8]

Also, check this. "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST. https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 3 through 9 2024 were 194, 229, 180, 173, 167, 164, and 165, with a mean of 182. 10.7 cm flux was 245, 312, 291, 277, 265, 277 and 225, with a mean of 270. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 7, 16, 55, 58, and 19, with a mean of 24.4. Middle latitude A Index was 8, 6, 8, 13, 33, 29, and 15, with a mean of 16.


[1] https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/18/2024

Average daily sunspot numbers changed from 160 to 129.3 and average
daily solar flux from 261.3 to 194.3. Geomagnetic numbers were
higher, with planetary A index rising from 21.4 to 39.3.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 10,
two on October 13, two more October 14 and one more on October 15.

Predicted solar flux is 170, 160, and 165 on October 18-20, 170 on
October 21-22, 165 on October 23-24, 220 on October 25-26, then 225,
245, 235, 260, 245 and 235 on October 27 through November 1, and 230
on November 2-3, then 225 and 220 on November 4-5, 215 on November
6-8, 210 on November 9, 200 on November 10-12, and 205 on November
13-14 and 210 on November 15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 12 and 5 on October 18-21,
then 15, 12 and 5 on October 22-24, then 5, 1, 2 and 8 on October
25-27, then 5 on October 28 to November 8, then 10 on November 9-10,
then 5 on November 11-12, 8 on November 13 and 5 on November 14-17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 17, 2024 from OK1HH:

"A week ago, we witnessed a strong geomagnetic disturbance. It
peaked on 10 October and its effects in the ionosphere were
particularly evident on 11 October. The recovery from the
disturbance continued until 14 October, but was interrupted by a
further rise in geomagnetic activity on 15-16 October.

"Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions were generally poor
throughout the period. They did not even improve to average levels.
This development was due to the coincidence with a decrease in total
solar activity."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/warCdMmyE98[1]

An article on the peak of Solar Cycle 25:

https://www.inceptivemind.com/blurb/sun-reaches-maximum-phase-11-year-solar-cyc le/[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 10 through 16 2024 were 150, 130, 95,
108, 146, 141, and 135, with a mean of 129.3. 10.7 cm flux was
216.3, 213.9, 213.6, 194.9, 181.9, 172, and 167.7, with a mean of
194.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 96, 116, 20, 5, 8, 15, and
15, with a mean of 30.3. Middle latitude A Index was 50, 68, 16, 3,
6, 9, and 11, with a mean of 23.3.

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/warCdMmyE98
[2] https://www.inceptivemind.com/blurb/sun-reaches-maximum-phase-11-year-solar-cycle/
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/25/2024

Key solar indicators were lower this week, with average daily solar
flux down from 194.3 to 170.5 and average daily sunspot numbers
declining from 129.3 to 127.7.

On October 22, Spaceweather.com[1] reported:

"THE SUN IS TAKING A QUICK BREAK: Solar Max is hard work. Just ask
the Sun. After flaring almost without pause for the past 10 months,
the Sun is taking a quick break. Solar activity has been low for the
past 48 hours with no flares stronger than category C. The quiet
won't last. Solar Max is expected to continue for at least another
year; flaring should resume shortly."

Predicted solar flux is 200 on October 25-26, then 205 and 215 on
October 27-28, then 220 on October 29-31, then 180, 185, 180 and 175
on November 1-4, 180 on November 5-6, 185 on November 7-8, 180 on
November 9, 175 on November 10-12, then 180 and 175 on November
13-14, 170 on November 15-16, 165 on November 17-18, and 160 and 165 on November 19-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18 and 7 on October 25-27, then 8
on October 28-29, 5 0n October 30 through November 10, then 12, 12,
8, 5, 12, 10, 5, 15 and 10 on November 11-19, and 5 on November
20-21, 12 on November 22 and 5 on November 23-30.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 24, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"NASA and NOAA announced in a joint statement on October 15, 2024
that a solar maximum is underway. This phase of the cycle may take 2
to 3 years to develop. For shortwave propagation, this implies that
the regular openings of the shortest bands will continue at least
through 2025, possibly longer.

"The author of these lines considers it likely that the current
11-year cycle will have two peaks, the first of which is taking
place now. In that case, we could expect the second peak in 2025.

"Coronagraphs aboard artificial Earth satellites provide invaluable
data for predicting solar activity. The Solar and Heliospheric
Observatory (SOHO) has been in operation for an unexpectedly long
time - it was launched in December 1995! Fortunately, the Sun is
still being similarly observed by GOES-19, although it is still
undergoing testing with instrument checks, including the
coronagraph, which we expect to be in regular use from Spring 2025.

"In the last two weeks or so, we have been able to observe the size
of AR3842 and AR3844 on the Sun's far side.

"AR3844, meanwhile, emerged on the southeastern limb of the solar
disk, was renamed AR3869, and immediately made itself known with a
powerful solar flare of class X3.3. It happened on October 24, with
the peak of the event at 0357 UT. The extreme ultraviolet radiation
from the flare ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere. The
Dellinger effect knocked out shortwaves to 30 MHz for nearly an hour
in the Australia and Southeast Asia region. The current CME has left
the Sun, but is unlikely to hit Earth (if it does, it could happen
on October 26).

"After the eruption, due to the increase in ionization of the
ionospheric F2 region between 0910 - 1050 UT, the 50 MHz magic band
between central and southern Europe and Japan (especially the
southern half of its large islands) was opened. However, the vast
majority of contacts were established at 50313 kHz (WSJT-X, FT8)."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for October 17 through 23 2024 were 146, 132, 101,
113, 168, 130, and 104, with a mean of 127.7. 10.7 cm flux was
167.7, 173.5, 165.2, 161.7, 163.9, 176.1, and 185.7, with a mean of
170.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 14, 23, 7, 5, 8, and 9,
with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 10, 15, 6, 3, 7,
and 7, with a mean of 7.9.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/01/2024

Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
went from 127.7 to 197.4 and average solar flux from 170.5 to 240.2.

Predicted solar flux is 270 on November 1-2, 265 and 260 on November
3-4, 250 on November 5-7, 214, 195 and 182 on November 8-10, 172,
168, 174 and 165 on November 11-14, and 162 on November 15-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 15, and 10 on November 1-4, 5
on November 5-15, then 5, 8, 5, 12, and 8 on November 16-20, and 5
on November 21 through December 5

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 31, 2024 from OK1HH:

"We know only approximately what the Earth's ionosphere looked like
between March 1755 and June 1766 thanks to observations of the Sun
in Solar Cycle 1. But we do know what it looked like in Solar Cycle
19, which ran from April 1954 to October 1964. Although I was a
novice radio amateur at the time, I can testify that the shortwave
propagation conditions at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 (1958) were
wonderful!

"As of December 2019, Solar Cycle 25 is in operation. It was
supposed to be low, fortunately it is not. Its maximum is now
underway, perhaps a second will follow next year. It is fabulous,
judging by the above and the many interesting effects, including,
for example, auroras. But unfortunately, not if we judge them by the
current conditions of ionospheric shortwave propagation. An
explanation of why this is now the case will surely be forthcoming -
but perhaps Solar Cycle 26 will be underway.

"A week ago, as expected, large active regions and corresponding
groups of spots appeared at the southeastern limb of the solar disk.
We are now seeing them near the central meridian. This has increased
the likelihood of Earth being hit by particles that will eject
subsequent flares. It seems that not only these, but also
disturbances in the geomagnetic field and then fluctuations in the
ionospheric propagation field can be counted on with certainty in
the coming days. Given that we have already seen simultaneously
observed active regions on the Sun during the last solar rotation,
presumably a 27-day recurrence will be a good aid to prediction."

How NASA tracks the Solar Cycles:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di[1]

The latest from the Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence
Newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [7]. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 24 through 30 2024 were 138, 157, 181,
198, 288, 220, and 200, with a mean of 197.4. 10.7 cm flux was
196.6, 209.3, 238.4, 246.2, 255.5, 265.6, and 269.8, with a mean of
240.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 3, 14, 10, 17, 12, and
15, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 2, 11, 8, 11,
10, and 10, with a mean of 8.9.

ÿ


[1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di
[2] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/15/2024

Only five new sunspot groups emerged this week. First was on
November 7, next on November 9, two more on November 11, and another
on November 13.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 193.4 to 141.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 248.4 to 203.7.

Predicted solar flux is 145 on November 15-16, 155 on November
17-18, then 145 on November 19, 140 November 20-21, then 235, 240,
255 and 260 on November 22-25, 270 on November 26-27, then 255 and
250 on November 28-29, 240 on November 30 and December 1, 230 on
December 2-3, and 225 and 220 on December 4-5, then 225 on December 6-7, and 175, 170, and 175 on December 8-10, then 165 on December 11-14, 178 and 185 on December 15-16, 200 on December 17-18, then 235, 240, 255 and 260 on December 19-22.

Estimated planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 12 and 8 on November
15-19, 5 on November 20-24, 10 on November 25-26, then 8, 5, 5 and
10 on November 27-30, then 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on December 1-5, 12 on
December 6-8, then 8, 12 and 10 on December 9-11, 8 on December
12-13, then 5, 8, 5 and 12 on December 14-17.

From HMI Science Nuggets, a possible explanation for solar cycle
double peaks:

http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2685[1]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 14, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Of the three active regions in the past few days, two have fallen
behind the western limb of the solar disk. Therefore, the solar flux
has dropped significantly. The third sunspot group was AR3889, which
crossed the central meridian midweek. Its size of over 400
millionths of the solar disk area, and in particular the optical 'F'
and magnetic 'Beta-Gamma-Delta' configurations, indicate that the
production of moderate size flares will continue. So, because it is
in the west, like most coronal holes, the solar wind should
intensify, and the Earth's magnetic field activity should increase.

"This development, in fact, has already begun on November 14. First,
conditions worsened after the polarity of the longitudinal component
of the interplanetary magnetic field changed to negative between
0200-0500 UTC, while the density of protons in the solar wind
increased. This was correctly followed by an increase in its
velocity from 350 km/s to 440 km/s. Due to the anticipated increase
in the solar wind, a further several days of turbulence is expected,
followed by calming down only during the following week."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/lGpDztCtTwY[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for November 7 through 13, 2024 were 164, 167, 176,
121, 138, 116, and 109, with a mean of 141.6. 10.7 cm flux was
239.2, 231, 220.9, 230.6, 182.2, 171.7, and 150.3, with a mean of
203.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 11, 32, 25, 10, 5, and
7, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 7, 24, 15, 7,
4, and 5, with a mean of 9.9.
ÿ


[1] http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2685
[2] https://youtu.be/lGpDztCtTwY
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/22/2024

Solar activity was lower this reporting week, November 14-20, with
the average daily sunspot number down from 141.6 to 99.3, and solar
flux from 203.7 to 152.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet.

This follows a period during August and October when it seemed we
must be at the peak of Solar Cycle 25. But we won't know that until
nearly a year after solar max, when a long moving average of daily
sunspot numbers is examined.

Predicted solar flux is 170 on November 22, 175 on November 23-24,
180 on November 25-26, 175 and 180 on November 27-28, 250 on
November 29-30, then 240, 230, 220, and 210 on December 1-4, 205 on
December 5-6, then 200, 180, 170 and 150 on December 7-10, 145 on
December 11-12, then 149, 145, and 230 on December 13-15, 235 on
December 16-17, 240 on December 18-20, 245 on December 21-22, then
240, 245 and 255 on December 23-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 22-25, 5 on November
26-29, then 10, 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on November 30 through December 5,
12 on December 6-7, then 10, 5, 5, 10, 15 and 10 on November 8-13,
then 8 on December 14-15, then 5 and 12 on December 16-17, and 5 on
December 18-21.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 21, 2024, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"During November, solar activity was relatively lowest in the middle
of the month, which happened after the large sunspot groups in the
west of the disk had set and before the larger groups in the east
came out. The largest of these is designated AR3901 and will pass
through the central meridian on November 23. Solar activity will
therefore still increase slightly. A more significant rise could
perhaps be expected after the rise of the other groups, but their
current activity on the far side of the Sun does not appear to be
great for now.

"The low number and small area of coronal holes are the likely cause
of the geomagnetically quieter development, which is likely to
continue.

"November belongs to the Autumn DX season, Therefore we can expect
continued above-average shortwave propagation. They were admittedly
a little worse as a result of the drop in solar radiation, but the
rest of the month could, yet, correct this. Which is true for the
northern hemisphere of the Earth, where the season of favorable
propagation conditions on the longer shortwave bands is already
beginning!"

Images from the European Space Agency:

https://tinyurl.com/42r665y9[1]

From "Space Daily," solar orbiter images:

https://tinyurl.com/bdz33ake[2]

https://tinyurl.com/yvkf66u2[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for November 14 through 20, 2024 were 96, 71, 71,
117, 118, 109, and 113, with a mean of 99.3. 10.7 cm flux was 146.8,
148.9, 139.9, 146.3, 165, 157.2, and 162.6, with a mean of 152.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 8, 8, 4, 9, and 9, with a
mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 8, 6, 3, 6, and 8,
with a mean of 7.3.

ÿ


[1] https://tinyurl.com/42r665y9
[2] https://tinyurl.com/bdz33ake
[3] https://tinyurl.com/yvkf66u2
[4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS